Kingdom Come's got my blood boiling... Let's talk CFL!

[AFLGuru]

The CFL season is inching closer, and I for one think that there is an absolutely tremendous play floating around on the board at 5Dimes (and in various other places with slightly different lines... shop around).

Toronto to win the East +125

Nobody's stopping this team. Their biggest drawback over the past few years has been their offense, specifically the play of their quarterback. Damon Allen and a host of others are out, Kerry Joseph is in. He's arguably the best QB in the CFL at this point. I'll listen to arguments for Kevin Glenn, but I still think it's Joseph.

Last year's team went 11-7 and won the East by a game over Winnipeg. They easily had the best defense in the league at 18.7 ppg (next closest was BC's 21.1 ppg). Two of the front three DL are back (and Riall Johnson should step up and be an effective starter), the entire starting linebacking corps is back, and the mass majority of the defensive backfield remains in tact (they lost Younger in a deal with Edmonton).

The team turned the corner which Mike Bishop took over under centre (note the spelling!) last year. It felt like in all of those games though, they were winning 16-8 or something absurd like that. Like I said, Kerry Joseph takes over now, who led the CFL's 2nd best offense (29.4 ppg) to a Grey Cup victory.

Talbot, Cetoute, and Bruce are all back as receivers, and though they lost Miles, they added TJ Acree from Edmonton to replace him. The biggest question mark may come at running back, where Tyler Ebell was picked up from Edmonton, and Dominique Dorsey returns from the end of last season. Four of the five offensive linemen are returners.

They only have one kicker on their team now that Prefontaine is gone, and he's some dude that's younger than me that went to McGill that I know squat about. I would assume that Dorsey is going to continue returning kicks for the double blue.

One glance at the rest of the East will easily eliminate an aging Montreal squad and a Hamilton team that hasn't done jack crap in years. The Blue Bombers are the only real threat in this division, and it might be worth playing something like this just to be sure...

Toronto 250 to win 312.50
Winnipeg 120 to win 250

But I think just letting Toronto ride by itself is worth it.

 

[KingdomCome]

The CFL season is inching closer, and I for one think that there is an absolutely tremendous play floating around on the board at 5Dimes (and in various other places with slightly different lines... shop around).

Toronto to win the East +125

Nobody's stopping this team. Their biggest drawback over the past few years has been their offense, specifically the play of their quarterback. Damon Allen and a host of others are out, Kerry Joseph is in. He's arguably the best QB in the CFL at this point. I'll listen to arguments for Kevin Glenn, but I still think it's Joseph.

Last year's team went 11-7 and won the East by a game over Winnipeg. They easily had the best defense in the league at 18.7 ppg (next closest was BC's 21.1 ppg). Two of the front three DL are back (and Riall Johnson should step up and be an effective starter), the entire starting linebacking corps is back, and the mass majority of the defensive backfield remains in tact (they lost Younger in a deal with Edmonton).

The team turned the corner which Mike Bishop took over under centre (note the spelling!) last year. It felt like in all of those games though, they were winning 16-8 or something absurd like that. Like I said, Kerry Joseph takes over now, who led the CFL's 2nd best offense (29.4 ppg) to a Grey Cup victory.

Talbot, Cetoute, and Bruce are all back as receivers, and though they lost Miles, they added TJ Acree from Edmonton to replace him. The biggest question mark may come at running back, where Tyler Ebell was picked up from Edmonton, and Dominique Dorsey returns from the end of last season. Four of the five offensive linemen are returners.

They only have one kicker on their team now that Prefontaine is gone, and he's some dude that's younger than me that went to McGill that I know squat about. I would assume that Dorsey is going to continue returning kicks for the double blue.

One glance at the rest of the East will easily eliminate an aging Montreal squad and a Hamilton team that hasn't done jack crap in years. The Blue Bombers are the only real threat in this division, and it might be worth playing something like this just to be sure...

Toronto 250 to win 312.50
Winnipeg 120 to win 250

But I think just letting Toronto ride by itself is worth it.

What more could I possibly add to this analysis other than I completely agree. Winny is the only threat and really I see Toronto winning the East by two or three games. I was looking at this too but waiting 5 months for an Even payout is the only thing that deters me. Can't wait for the season to begin!!!

 

[PhilMoneyMargonis]

i like TO as well. sounds like the argos are bringin in Vanderjact from the NFL to replace Prefontaine

 

[AFLGuru]

Hey KC... where else on this planet can you get a 100% payout for 5 months? It's not exactly a "CD" but futures are always excellent bets.

 

[AFLGuru]

The West isn't nearly as easy. If Saskatchewan can get QB play, they'll be alright. I just don't trust Crandell at all. Calgary is still going to be dangerous on offense with Burris, Reynolds, and those big WRs.

Then there's BC, who it feels like year in and year out has a tremendous squad. I'd say there's probably better than a 50/50 chance that the Lions repeat as Western Champions again (these are regular season bets, mind you), but I think there's better than a 25% chance for the Stamps to win it as well. And god knows that going up to Calgary late in the year is suicide.

 

[PhilMoneyMargonis]

Sask will have a big target on their back as all Champs do. Crandell is a step down as well so they may be in tough out West I think. They lost DE Perry who's a very good rush end and they lost Hunt as well and he was a very fast LB and very good tackler.

 

[powerz]

Didn't see this thread when I started my thread....


EAST

Winnipeg
Hamilton
Toronto - Chemistry issues prevail - Asst to HC never works
Montreal

WEST

BC
CGY
Edmonton
Sask - from 1st to worst too many holes to fill defense - HC - QB.

 

[thirdperson]

Toronto should be favored but Winnipeg isn't far behind. Toronto normally plays well against Winnipeg except for a few games. In 2007, Toronto and BC amazingly were division leaders despite missing their top quarterbacks. Joseph might be an overrated quarterback who luckily avoided injury and overachieved to get a new contract. He should return to normal on a new team with inferior offensive line and receivers.

 

[PassTheBuck]

Alright, I didn't even notice that CFL talk had begun!

East

Winnipeg -- Defence will win with this team. Only team in the East that can afford to consistantly run on 1st down.

Toronto -- They will find a way to come 2nd in the crappy East, but they will struggle to keep a .500 record. You bring in guys like Joseph, Vanderjagt, Boston, etc and there will no doubt be some internal problems. Rogers Centre is least intimidating stadium in the league.

Montreal -- If they can sort out their QB problems they could end up in the Grey Cup. I doubt they will, so they will battle for the basement in the league with Hamilton.

Hamilton -- Casey Printers is still trying to make "chicken salad out of chicken shit." Problem is that Printers' ego is getting in the way. I am just waiting for him to start blaming others on the team. Too bad, cause they have an exciting team and a starting Canadian RB (which should be a huge boost in a league where you have import rules and every other team starts and import at RB).

West

British Columbia -- Best team in the league, easy. Buck Pierce (obviously) is my fav. QB, but they can win with either guy. Only concern is a new defensive co-ordinator. A big improvment last year was the defence, and I really hope they can maintain their level of success without Ritchie.

Calgary -- Two good QBs, solid RB, but weak on defence. Only a matter of time before impatience over Burris' INTs will lead to Dickenson being the starter.

Saskatchewan -- If (big IF) they can find a top notch QB somewhere to replace Joseph, they will challenge BC. Otherwise, this team has lost some big names, but will still scrap hard. Benefit by having the best fans and best stadium in the league.

Edmonton -- I'm not a big Ricky Ray fan, and I think his downfall starts this year. Team still has holes all over the place, but is probably good enough to get by teams like Montreal and Hamilton. In the West they will struggle against the strong competition.

 

[KingdomCome]

Didn't see this thread when I started my thread....


EAST

Winnipeg
Hamilton
Toronto - Chemistry issues prevail - Asst to HC never works
Montreal

WEST

BC
CGY
Edmonton
Sask - from 1st to worst too many holes to fill defense - HC - QB.

Hamilton will have a better record than Toronto? Interesting....

Pass the Buck, very good analysis. Bishop to me has a cannon arm but is one of the most inaccurate QB's in the league. With the running ability of Joseph, it is just an addition to the best defense in the league. I think you are right on with the West and Winnipeg will indeed battle Toronto with the East, definately not a walk in the park when you have Glenn and one of, if not the best back in the league with Roberts. Getting very hyped as preseason is right around the corner. :toast:

 

[BigBetterRob]

when does the CFL season begin?.. i am new to CFL ...and just started reading up about it!:toast: thanks

 

[PassTheBuck]

when does the CFL season begin?.. i am new to CFL ...and just started reading up about it!:toast: thanks

Check out CFL.ca and TSN.ca/CFL. Most of what you need to know is in there.

Regular season starts on June 26.

 

[BigBetterRob]

Check out CFL.ca and TSN.ca/CFL. Most of what you need to know is in there.

Regular season starts on June 26.

thanks PTB ... will do!

 

[-Chase-]

Very wise play AFL. I was looking at making a play on both the Argos and the Bombers to pretty much guarantee myself profit. I really like this young Tiger-Cats team, but they certainly aren't there yet to make a run at the division title. I think the Montreal era is finished and they have to start rebuilding.

What do you think about Calgary? I think this team has what it takes to win the Grey Cup this year, and at +530 I really see value there. A Stamps/Argos match-up in the finals is my guess.

 

[KingdomCome]

The one thing I really hate about this sport is the books limits. I understand they lose on this sport every year and only have lines to keep people interested but max $100 on a team total at Pinny and max $200 at Greek?? This is absurd.

I think the one team people are sleeping on is Montreal. Will they make the playoffs? They will be battling for that last spot but team total was 5.5 and I think Over this number is free money. If their limits were higher, I would have laid 10 dimes Over 5.5. Cavillo provides veteran leadership but Brady can win with his legs and arm. They have our good Arena friend Adrian McPherson as the #3 option and it would be fun to see what he could do with his legs on such a large field. They added Bush to the linebackers and their offense is still above average with Cahoon, Payton and which ever QB they roll with. Just to think they will lose 13 games out of 18 is hard to muster.

Guru, I know it is early but Toronto in Winnipeg week #1 will be a game of high interest for you with your future bet. If Toronto walks on them with ease, it may be over before it started. Winny has their core team returning and should already be on the same page and gel. Toronto will need time to get everyone on the same page.

Week #1 lines will be out early next week and will post what I play. Good luck to all this season.

 

[AFLGuru]

Though it really is hard to believe that mighty Montreal could lose that many games, it just seems a bit odd that EVERYBODY seems to believe that they're going to stink. Their OL was awful last year, did nothing to help that situation this year, and AC ain't getting any younger standing in the pocket. The receivers last year looked really lousy at times, and the defense just couldn't keep up with those times that the offense would get sacked and be forced to punt.

If Hamilton is really an improved squad, Montreal MIGHT struggle to get there.

Olympic put up an interesting snag on our futures bets for "to win the division"... they mention that this INCLUDES the postseason all of a sudden. I seriously hope that that's NOT what I bet, because I don't want to have anybody at +140 for one game, even if they are hosting it. As we all learned last year, nothing's a guarantee in a 1 game situation.

I'm merely "hoping" for a good showing against Winnipeg this year. I know the double blue are going to lose a few games, and they damn well could get blown out of the water in Winnipeg in Wk 1, but it's a LONG season with a lot of crap that can go wrong in that time.

 

[KingdomCome]

Though it really is hard to believe that mighty Montreal could lose that many games, it just seems a bit odd that EVERYBODY seems to believe that they're going to stink. Their OL was awful last year, did nothing to help that situation this year, and AC ain't getting any younger standing in the pocket. The receivers last year looked really lousy at times, and the defense just couldn't keep up with those times that the offense would get sacked and be forced to punt.

If Hamilton is really an improved squad, Montreal MIGHT struggle to get there.

Olympic put up an interesting snag on our futures bets for "to win the division"... they mention that this INCLUDES the postseason all of a sudden. I seriously hope that that's NOT what I bet, because I don't want to have anybody at +140 for one game, even if they are hosting it. As we all learned last year, nothing's a guarantee in a 1 game situation.

I'm merely "hoping" for a good showing against Winnipeg this year. I know the double blue are going to lose a few games, and they damn well could get blown out of the water in Winnipeg in Wk 1, but it's a LONG season with a lot of crap that can go wrong in that time.

Guru, all conference bets are essentially picking the team to play in the Grey Cup. If Toronto does not make the dance, you will lose the bet. Good news is, if Winny does have the better record, you still have life and vice versa. If Toronto doesn't get a 1st round bye, you obviously have no value and if they do and are like a 7 point favorite, you are really getting a -300 bet for +140. I will be cheering for the Argos to win it all as I have been spending countless months in Toronto lately. Good luck this season, hard to believe we will have lines and totals we can hammer next week. :toast:

 

[PassTheBuck]

Though it really is hard to believe that mighty Montreal could lose that many games, it just seems a bit odd that EVERYBODY seems to believe that they're going to stink. Their OL was awful last year, did nothing to help that situation this year, and AC ain't getting any younger standing in the pocket. The receivers last year looked really lousy at times, and the defense just couldn't keep up with those times that the offense would get sacked and be forced to punt.

If Hamilton is really an improved squad, Montreal MIGHT struggle to get there.

Olympic put up an interesting snag on our futures bets for "to win the division"... they mention that this INCLUDES the postseason all of a sudden. I seriously hope that that's NOT what I bet, because I don't want to have anybody at +140 for one game, even if they are hosting it. As we all learned last year, nothing's a guarantee in a 1 game situation.

I'm merely "hoping" for a good showing against Winnipeg this year. I know the double blue are going to lose a few games, and they damn well could get blown out of the water in Winnipeg in Wk 1, but it's a LONG season with a lot of crap that can go wrong in that time.

I'm really interested to see the line for the Argos/Bombers game in Week 1. I fully expect Winnipeg to be undervalued, despite being at home in week 1 with virtually the same team as last year. Only concern is how they will fill the void left by Hebert. Conversely, the Argos are running with new staff and a new guy taking snaps. Ready to hit the Bombers in week 1.

 

[KingdomCome]

I'm really interested to see the line for the Argos/Bombers game in Week 1. I fully expect Winnipeg to be undervalued, despite being at home in week 1 with virtually the same team as last year. Only concern is how they will fill the void left by Hebert. Conversely, the Argos are running with new staff and a new guy taking snaps. Ready to hit the Bombers in week 1.

I was thinking the exact same thing depending on the line. I think there will be a couple of home dogs that could be live dogs week #1. Including the Stamps IMO. :toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

I haven't studied the schedule yet, per se (though I know who's playing who 4 times), but I sincerely doubt that Winnipeg is going to be a home underdog in the opener. I'll say this though... for a DOME team, I'd much rather get done with "Winterpeg" in June than have to play them in October!

I'd be right there with you in the Bombers were underdogs even though I've got a sizeable bet on the Argos to win the East.

And KC, last year I had BC to win the West... you tell me that you would've hedged out in last year's Western Conference title game? That bet last year was for the regular season, and I took full advantage of it.